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J Chest Surg

Published online September 27, 2024

Copyright © Journal of Chest Surgery.

Prediction Model of Delayed Hemothorax in Patients with Traumatic Occult Hemothorax Using a Novel Nomogram

Junepill Seok , M.D.1,2, Su Young Yoon , M.D.1, Jonghee Han , M.D.1, Yook Kim , M.D.3,4, Jong-Myeon Hong , M.D.1,2

1Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Chungbuk National University Hospital; 2Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine; 3Department of Radiology, Chungbuk National University Hospital; 4Department of Radiology, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju, Korea

Correspondence to:Jong-Myeon Hong
Tel 82-43-269-7350
Fax 82-43-269-7763
E-mail hongjm@chungbuk.ac.kr
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1659-8516

Received: May 20, 2024; Revised: July 16, 2024; Accepted: July 23, 2024

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background: Delayed hemothorax (dHTX) can occur unexpectedly, even in patients who initially present without signs of hemothorax (HTX), potentially leading to death. We aimed to develop a predictive model for dHTX requiring intervention, specifically targeting those with no or occult HTX.
Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at a level 1 trauma center. The primary outcome was the occurrence of dHTX requiring intervention in patients who had no HTX or occult HTX and did not undergo closed thoracostomy post-injury. To minimize overfitting, we employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model for feature selection. Thereafter, we developed a multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and a nomogram.
Results: In total, 688 patients were included in the study, with 64 cases of dHTX (9.3%). The LASSO and MLR analyses revealed that the depth of HTX (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.10–6.85; p<0.001) and the number of totally displaced rib fractures (RFX) (aOR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.56–2.32; p<0.001) were significant predictors. Based on these parameters, we developed a nomogram to predict dHTX, with a sensitivity of 78.1%, a specificity of 76.0%, a positive predictive value of 25.0%, and a negative predictive value of 97.1% at the optimal cut-off value. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.832.
Conclusion: The depth of HTX on initial chest computed tomography and the number of totally displaced RFX emerged as significant risk factors for dHTX. We propose a novel nomogram that is easily applicable in clinical settings.

Keywords: Delayed hemothorax, Occult hemothorax, Rib fractures, Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, Nomograms

Article

ahead

J Chest Surg

Published online September 27, 2024

Copyright © Journal of Chest Surgery.

Prediction Model of Delayed Hemothorax in Patients with Traumatic Occult Hemothorax Using a Novel Nomogram

Junepill Seok , M.D.1,2, Su Young Yoon , M.D.1, Jonghee Han , M.D.1, Yook Kim , M.D.3,4, Jong-Myeon Hong , M.D.1,2

1Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Chungbuk National University Hospital; 2Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine; 3Department of Radiology, Chungbuk National University Hospital; 4Department of Radiology, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju, Korea

Correspondence to:Jong-Myeon Hong
Tel 82-43-269-7350
Fax 82-43-269-7763
E-mail hongjm@chungbuk.ac.kr
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1659-8516

Received: May 20, 2024; Revised: July 16, 2024; Accepted: July 23, 2024

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background: Delayed hemothorax (dHTX) can occur unexpectedly, even in patients who initially present without signs of hemothorax (HTX), potentially leading to death. We aimed to develop a predictive model for dHTX requiring intervention, specifically targeting those with no or occult HTX.
Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at a level 1 trauma center. The primary outcome was the occurrence of dHTX requiring intervention in patients who had no HTX or occult HTX and did not undergo closed thoracostomy post-injury. To minimize overfitting, we employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model for feature selection. Thereafter, we developed a multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and a nomogram.
Results: In total, 688 patients were included in the study, with 64 cases of dHTX (9.3%). The LASSO and MLR analyses revealed that the depth of HTX (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.10–6.85; p<0.001) and the number of totally displaced rib fractures (RFX) (aOR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.56–2.32; p<0.001) were significant predictors. Based on these parameters, we developed a nomogram to predict dHTX, with a sensitivity of 78.1%, a specificity of 76.0%, a positive predictive value of 25.0%, and a negative predictive value of 97.1% at the optimal cut-off value. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.832.
Conclusion: The depth of HTX on initial chest computed tomography and the number of totally displaced RFX emerged as significant risk factors for dHTX. We propose a novel nomogram that is easily applicable in clinical settings.

Keywords: Delayed hemothorax, Occult hemothorax, Rib fractures, Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, Nomograms

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